Feh!  Once again I had a lackluster week, and while I have yet to truly bomb out in any given week this season, I’d almost prefer that to the over/under .500 deal I have had to offer up week after week.

Maybe this week is what the doctor ordered therefore.  There are a handful of 50/50 games on the schedule, but there are more clear cut favorites than usual, and this week, rather than guessing who will pull out a win at the end, you really need to work the number in each game to come up with the right side.  Or some bullshit like that.

Hope springs eternal.  Here goes nothing.  Here’s your Week 10 NFL betting preview, with best picks and all the over/under selections.

Last Week’s Picks:    5-8        Best:  1-2

Season Totals:    68-71-5    Best:  17-16-1

Dallas (+1) @Tampa Bay (Wynn Las Vegas)

I wouldn’t touch this game, because Dallas in now way shape or form should be 0 for no Tony Romo and, in fact, have played well enough to win nearly every game he has missed.  Yet they are now a team that goes out every Sunday and finds a way to lose.  They shouldn’t lose this week, but they will.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Dallas Cowboys 21


Carolina (-5) @Tennessee (MGM Mirage)

I know Marcus Mariota has put up some very impressive stats, but look more closely, and against what I consider good defensive teams he’s thrown 1 touchdown and three picks.  Carolina certainly qualifies, and they’re the hottest team in the NFL right now.  They shut down Aaron Rodgers, do you think Marcus Mariota is going to break through?  Me neither.

Carolina Panthers 27 Tennessee Titans 19


Chicago (+7) @St. Louis (Westgate Superbook)

It’s true that Chicago’s three wins have come against bad teams and that they can’t stop the run against anybody.  Consequently, Todd Gurley goes off in this game and the Rams are the right side.  I’m squeamish about giving 7, however to a Rams team that doesn’t score a whole of lot points and, I have to admit, Jay Cutler has not been playing badly.  He’s not good enough to win this game, but to get you on the spread, he might be.  I’m taking St. Louis, but I don’t like it.

St. Louis Rams 24 Chicago Bears 14


New Orleans (-1.5) @Washington (Wynn Las Vegas)

Oh, I really hate this game because it is making me lean toward the RacialSlurs, and they are bad enough to screw up at any given moment.  But I look at the horrendous Saints’ defense and their overall inconsistency and I think there’s now way I’m taking New Orleans as a road favorite.  They’re not worth it.

Washington RacialSlurs 31 New Orleans Saints 27


Miami (+7) @Philadelphia (5Dimes)

Miami has a great record as an underdog getting more than 3 points, and I’d put this game in Best Picks had the Dolphins not looked so completely done last week.  If Miami shows up, they’ll cover 6 against a fairly weak Eagles squad easily.  If last week’s Dolphins show up, they’re poison.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Miami Dolphins 20


Cleveland (+5.5) @Pittsburgh (Westgate Superbook)

If I knew Roethlisberger’s status for this game for sure, I’d like this spot a lot more.  With Big Ben, the Steelers would be a more prohibitive favorite.  He says he’ll play, but his status is doubtful.  Same deal on the other side of the ball, where Josh McCown is healthy but Johnny Manziel might get an extended look at quarterback.  Too much uncertainty to bet on this one, but I’m guessing Roethlisberger sits so I’ll take Cleveland and the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Cleveland Browns 17


Jacksonville (+5) @Baltimore (MGM Mirage)

I’ve been getting killed on trends this year, but there’s one here I’m inclined to follow, which is that John Harbaugh is 6-1 against the spread after a bye.  Honestly, I have little more than that to go on this year.  Baltimore is maddenlingly inconsistent, having lost to San Francisco and Cleveland this year, but Jacksonville brings no defense to speak of to the table, and generally scores points only after they’ve played their way out of the game.  I’m taking the Ravens here, but this is another game I wouldn’t necessarily touch.

Baltimore Ravens 28 Jacksonville Jaguars 21


Minnesota (+3) @Oakland (Pinnacle)

Believe it or not, this Super Bowl XI rematch is the game of the week.  This is ABSOLUTELY the game of the week.  Hell, this could be a Super Bowl LII or LIII preview.  The Vikings have a look ahead situation as they play Green Bay next week, and Teddy Bridgewater’s status is unknown.  That plus home field have me leaning Oakland Raiders in this one, but I’m looking forward mostly to just watching it.

Oakland Raiders 27 Minnesota Vikings 23


New England (-7) @NY Giants (Westgate Superbook)

Normally I’d say Tom Coughlin is one of the few coaches who has Belichick’s number, but he doesn’t have the horses on defense this year to slow down the Patriots offense.  You can’t win a shootout with Tom Brady, and the team that eventually knocks off New England will have a much better stop unit than the Giants can put out there.

New England Patriots 31 New York Giants 22


Arizona (+3) @Seattle (Westgate Superbook)

This should be a terrific divisional game to watch.  Arizona is the better team this year, but they’re not without their vulnerabilities and, let’s face it, the Seahawks are in a 100% must win scenario here.  If they can’t win this game at home, they’re not making the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks 23 Arizona Cardinals 17


The Lions practice their new fake field goal play

The Lions practice their new fake field goal play

Detroit (+11.5) @Green Bay (Westgate Superbook)

It may not look like we’re getting much value here, but the Packers, at home, against a 1-7 team, who hasn’t beaten them in Green Bay in the last 2 dozen tries, favored by less than two touchdowns?  We’re getting a hangover effect from the Packers struggling on the road against two of the NFL’s top defenses in Denver and Carolina.  The Pack ain’t perfect, but they’ll make mincemeat out of these toothless Lions.

Green Bay Packers 35 Detroit Lions 20


Chicago @St. Louis o/u 42.5 (Westgate Superbook)

The run-run Rams go up against the so-so Bears.  The Rams superior defense should keep Chicago at less than 20.  The Rams own offense will keep them below 25.  I’m fairly confident the under will come through here.

St. Louis Rams 24 Chicago Bears 14


New Orleans @Washington o/u 50 (MGM Mirage)

Four of the Saints’ last five games have gone over 50 combined, and they’re getting worse at it, not better.  Their offense is healthy, and their defense is trash.  The RacialSlurs don’t have the high octane offense the Saints do, but they’ve shown the ability to score points against weak defenses (ahem, ahem).  This will be a not particularly exciting shootout, unless you’ve bet the over.

Washington RacialSlurs 31 New Orleans Saints 27


Kansas City (+5.5) @Denver (Westgate Superbook)

Andy Reid’s success off the bye week used to be quite noteworthy, but it hasn’t translated to his time with the Chiefs.  In fact, Denver covered against them in this exact spot two years ago, and with Kansas City banged up on offense, I don’t see how they’ll score enough to cover against a Broncos team that should be playing angry after losing last week.

Denver Broncos 27 Kansas City Chiefs 17


Houston (+10.5) @Cincinnati (Westgate Superbook)

I think the Houston Texans are the worst frauds in the NFL this year.  They are bad enough to be 1-7 like Detroit, and you will see exactly how bad that is this week when the Bengals leave them trampled in the dust.  10.5 is no problem for the cover.

Cincinnati Bengals 31 Houston Texans 14

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