I knew I should have finished making these picks Saturday morning. Instead I got busy and had to wait until I got home from work to do them, and then I had to get the sauce on the stove because I had picked up my daughter for dinner since it was Friday night and I always try to do something a little extra for her (read that last bit in Ray Liotta’s voice from Goodfellas, the scene where he’s trying to get dinner cooked and also get his drug delivery made).
In any case, I’ve had two glasses of the red zinfandel that goes in the sauce, so some of these picks have some added, ahem, flavor. See if you can figure out which ones. 🙂 🙂 (hiccup).
Last Week’s Picks: 8-10-1. Best: 2-1
Season Total: 8-10-1. Best: 2-1
Two games under .500 after week 1 is just fine with me. Week 1 is always a bit of a crap shoot. The challenge in week 2 is not to overreact to the week 1 results, while still having the smarts to figure which teams are actually a lot better or worse than you thought. No easy task.
Detroit (+2.5) @Carolina (Las Vegas Hilton)
Cam Newton comes back this week but that’s probably not a plus for Carolina since he’s not 100% and the team did what it needed to do with Derek Anderson at QB last week. The Lions are always scary to take because they shoot themselves in the foot at least twice a game, but I don’t think the Panthers have the weapons to keep pace here.
Detroit Lions 24 Carolina Panthers 20
Miami (pick ‘em) @Buffalo (Wynn Las Vegas)
Easy money, right my friend? Super unstoppable Miami Football Machine beat the Greatriots last week while Buffalo only beat Chicago. In Chicago. The recent trend also favors Buffalo, as the Bills have won three of the last four meetings. And don’t think the Dolphins won’t have a New England hangover after last week. For any AFC East team, beating the Pats is like a mini Super Bowl. The Bills are the side.
Buffalo Bills 23 Miami Dolphins 21
Jacksonville (+7) @Washington (5Dimes)
The RacialSlurs have only covered three of the last fifteen times Robert Griffin III has started for them. That’s because people think RGIII is going to single handedly win the ‘Slurs games and, apparently, cover spreads too. They’re giving way too many points to a Jacksonville team that came within a half of knocking off a much better NFC East team last week.
Washington RacialSlurs 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 21
Dallas (+3) @Tennessee (Bookmaker.eu)
The Cowboys look so awful right now, I’m hesitant to think I will ever take them. Certainly not laying 3 to a Titans squad that played like it think it can win last week.
Tennessee Titans 28 Dallas Cowboys 24
Arizona (-2) @NY Giants (Wynn Las Vegas)
While I figured Eli Manning would rebound this year, and I still think he will, he didn’t look so good last week and I figure you need to avoid the Giants or bet against them until they get their heads screwed on straight. I don’t like the Cardinals traveling East, but I like the Giants even less right now.
Arizona Cardinals 23 New York Giants 20
New Orleans (-7) @Cleveland (5Dimes)
Last week Cleveland put up 27 points against the Steelers in their building. Against the Saints, I’m sure they will be able to find ways to score, while New Orleans usually tacks back a pace or two when playing in open air. A touchdown is too much to give here.
New Orleans Saints 28 Cleveland Browns 22
Atlanta (+6) @Cincinnati (Las Vegas Hilton)
A few things we learned last week: Cincinnati’s the best the AFC North has to offer and Atlanta is definitely back. That said, the Falcons don’t play nearly as well on the road, but the Bengals usually don’t blow anyone out. Giving 6 points with the Bengals. Probably not a good idea.
Cincinnati Bengals 27 Atlanta Falcons 24
St. Louis (+7) @Tampa Bay (5Dimes)
Here’s a little betting 101. While this game is not a sure thing by any stretch, take a look at the over/under. It’s 37, which is unbelievably low. How is a team supposed to cover nearly a touchdown in a game that isn’t supposed to make it into the 20s. I like the Rams getting this many points as an overreaction to how bad they played against the Vikings and because the over/under tells you this is likely to be a tight contest.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 St. Louis Rams 17
Seattle (-7) @San Diego (5Dimes)
There’s no way I want to give 6 with the Seahawks on the road, especially against a playoff caliber team in San Diego. I want to put this in Best Picks, but I’m scared of Seattle, so it’ll stay in Gen Pop.
Seattle Seahawks 23 San Diego Chargers 17
Houston (-3) @Oakland (Las Vegas Hilton)
There’s one unit actually worth watching in this game and it’s the Texans’ defense. That said, you don’t lay points with a bad team on the road. Do you think the Texans are beginning some march to over .500. I sure as hell don’t.
Oakland Raiders 19 Houston Texans 16
Kansas City (+13) @Denver (CG Technology)
I will never feel too confident betting against Peyton Manning, but last season both games between these teams were decided by margins of 10 points or less. 13 just seems way off the chart to me.
Denver Broncos 31 Kansas City Chiefs 20
Chicago (+6.5) @San Francisco (Las Vegas Hilton)
Are the Bears desperate enough to make this one close? I think they may be bad enough not to.
San Francisco 49ers 24 Chicago Bears 17
Best Picks Of The Week
New England (-3) @Minnesota (Las Vegas Hilton)
Any idea what Tom Brady’s record is after a loss? If I asked you to guess I’m sure you’d guess that we wins most of the time. Let me save you some time and tell you that even when you factor in the point spread, Brady is better than a 70% bet after a loss. Then consider that all the Patriots did was lose a division road game to the second best team in their division, and they’re now playing a team who everyone picked to finish last, who is coming off a game where they beat a team who everyone and their mother picks to finish last, and the spread is only 3. How much of an overreaction can you jam pack into one point spread?
New England Patriots 24 Minnesota Vikings 17
NY Jets (+8) @Green Bay (Las Vegas Hilton)
Remember all that stuff I just said about Tom Brady after a loss? Same deal with Aaron Rodgers. Moreover, the Packers at home are the kind of team that routinely delivers a blowout win against second division teams like the Jets. Finally, is this line TELLING me to take Green Bay or what? New York’s coming off a win, while Green Bay looked just awful against Seattle. Guess that didn’t fool anyone did it?
Green Bay Packers 28 New York Jets 14
Philadelphia (+3) @Indianapolis (MGM Mirage)
The Colts lost a road game to the best team in the AFC by the exact amount they were supposed to. The Eagles nearly blew their home opener against a second division squad. Sometimes, the final scores are misleading. How they got there counts too. I like the Colts to run it up a bit here. Philly stays with them for a while, then falls too far behind. Need more convincing? The Eagles are missing three starters on the offensive line. I’m literally SHOCKED this spread is only 3.
Indianapolis Colts 31 Philadelphia Eagles 21