Now is the time that try men’s souls. By my count, there are 5 games on the schedule this week that amount to “win or go home” contests for both teams, and a handful more with very serious playoff implications.
With so much at stake, this is a week where the teams that really belong come through and find a way to win. That’s the angle when you’re looking at how these contests may turn out.
Last Week: 5-8-3; 1-2-1 Best Picks
2013 Season: 89-82-10 Overall; 20-21-2 Best Picks
(All lines as of 11/22/13 @8:30 a.m. – line credit posted per game)
Thursday 0-1
Tampa Bay (+10) @Detroit (5Dimes)
No one thinks Tampa Bay is suddenly a bunch of world beaters just because they’ve won two games, but apparently no one thinks much of them at all given this huge spread against a Detroit team in a clear look ahead game to Thanksgiving. The Lions, by the way, have only covered once in 8 tries the week before Thanksgiving. I’m sure they’ll win the game, but by double digits? No way.
Detroit Lions 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Jacksonville (+10) @Houston (Las Vegas Hilton)
Well, here’s another game you shouldn’t touch with a 10 foot pole. No doubt, the Texans are the worst opponent the Jaguars have faced. But, other than the one game they won (and let’s face it, you have to think of that as a bit of a fluke), Jacksonville has yet to lose a game by single digits all year. So 10 points? Yeah, you have to give it.
Houston Texans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 13
Minnesota (+5.5) @Green Bay (BetDSI)
This is another game where the trends don’t help you because the @Green Bay trend in this divisional matchup, which normally favors the Packers, was written with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Instead we’ll get Scott Tolzein, Act III. The Packers haven’t managed to win a game since Rodgers went down, and while they may be able to beat the lowly Vikings, it’ll be close.
Green Bay Packers 24 Minnesota Vikings 21
San Diego (+5.5) @Kansas City (Carbon Sports)
Going back to 2006, the Chargers have only lost 3 times playing in Kansas City, and only once by more than 3. That’s a pretty significant trend. Add in that teams who start the season on significant unbeaten runs often come out flat once they lose their first, and I think this is a game where Kansas City will be tested, maybe even lose outright.
Kansas City Chiefs 23 San Diego Chargers 21
Carolina (-4) @Miami (MGM Mirage)
The Panthers are gonna have a letdown sooner or later, but until they do, you’ve got to ride them. The Dolphins had a bounce back last week, but they’re not all that.
Carolina Panthers 24 Miami Dolphins 17
Pittsburgh (pick ‘em) @Cleveland (5 Dimes)
The Browns have won both of their home games against AFC North opponents this season. And the Steelers are 1-4 on the road. The rub in this game, however, is that the loser is done. Mike Tomlin may have the Steelers really amped up for this game. I’m taking the Browns, but with reservations.
Cleveland Browns 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 16
Chicago (+1.5) @St. Louis (Las Vegas Hilton)
The Bears seemed to have found their rhythm with Josh McCown, and they have more to play for than the Rams in this game. I think they find a way to win it.
Chicago Bears 23 St. Louis Rams 20
Tennessee (-1) @Oakland (Las Vegas Hilton)
The Titans have lost 5 of their last 6 and are now saddled with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback through the end of the year. The Raiders just get no respect. I know it’s only a one point spread, but the point should be on the other side.
Oakland Raiders 24 Tennessee Titans 20
Dallas (+2.5) @NY Giants (Las Vegas Hilton)
The Cowboys are a perfect 3-0 in the division, and beating up on this crappy division is the key to their winning it. They’re not a great road team, and the Giants are hot, so I’m probably going to be sorry, but my blueprint for the season had the Cowboys winning games just like this one.
Dallas Cowboys 28 New York Giants 24
Denver (-1) @New England (5 Dimes)
Don’t bet this game. Watch this game. It’s Brady v. Manning. You don’t see one on one matchups like this very often and this one won’t be around forever.
Denver Broncos 27 New England Patriots 24
Best Picks of the Week
“None of us are taking the Lions. What does that tell you?”
NY Jets (+3) @Baltimore (Bet DSI)
The Jets on the road are an abomination, in particular Geno Smith, who for some reason plays like a bust away from home but is a totally different player in New York. The Ravens are coming off a tough loss, but they’ll get this one handed to them.
Baltimore Ravens 24 New York Jets 16
Indianapolis (+1) @Arizona (5Dimes)
I’m going out on a limb here. The Colts are the better team, but they don’t need this game. They’ve got a string of key conference games coming up – Tennessee, Cincinnati, Kansas City. The last time they played in a spot like this, they got splattered all over the field by St. Louis. The Cardinals have a very good defense, and they really do need this game. They finish the season against the Niners and Seahawks, so every win now really counts.
Arizona Cardinals 24 Indianapolis Colts 21
San Francisco (-5) @Washington (Wynn Las Vegas)
The book on the 49ers this season is that they lose when they face a tough opponent. But against weaklings like the Redskins? They don’t just win, they demolish them. The 49ers tend to win games like this by 20 points or more. Whatever offensive struggles they’re having will disappear against that vaunted Washington defense.
San Francisco 49ers 31 Washington Redskins 14
