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Intriguing Matchups and Opportunities: NFL Week 10 Preview

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by •November 9, 2012 •NFLComments (0)138

This was the week I could do no wrong.  Well, almost no wrong.  I forgot to make a pick on the Lions/Jaguars game.  Other than that, this was most definitely a rebound week, as I went 11-4 and 3-1 to lift me to 70-67-4 overall and 17-15-1 in Best Picks.   And the better news is that week 10 is a nice combination of intriguing matchups in the games and intriguing opportunities in the lines.

Hit the title/continue reading to check out the picks for the tenth week of the NFL…
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All lines as of 11/8/12 @10:30 a.m. – line credit posted per game)

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Buffalo (+12) @New England (5Dimes)

I’m probably going to be sorry here, but I’m taking the Bills in this game.  I am pretty much going straight trends here – it is rare for a team to get completely blown out twice in one season by the same team, although I’ll be honest, I can offer you no salient reason why the Bills will be able to stay within two touchdowns of the Patriots.  I was also playing with the idea of taking the under here, which is at 52.5, but I’ll leave that one alone.

New England Patriots 31 Buffalo Bills 20

NY Giants (-4) @Cincinnati (Sheridan’s)

The Giants don’t need this game, the rest of the NFC East has imploded around them, but New York is also coming off a loss, and with a bye week coming up, they could actually find themselves up just one game in the division if they lose here and either Dallas or Philadelphia (who play each other this week) win two in a row.  Besides that, the Bengals are reeling.  They’ve dropped four straight.  I don’t like either side here, but I’m taking the Giants who are clearly the better team.

New York Giants 27 Cincinnati Bengals 21

San Diego (+3) @Tampa Bay (Sheridan’s)

It’s put up or shut up time for both of these teams.  One of them jockeys for position in the playoff race and one of them winds up on the outside looking in.  I’m not crazy about the Chargers traveling east to play an early game, and the Bucs seem to have sorted out their difficulties.  It’s a reach, but I like Tampa to knock off what you would have thought would be the better team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 San Diego Chargers 24

Denver (-4.5) @Carolina (TopBet)

The Broncos have a double whammy game here.  They’re traveling east for an early game, and this is a look-ahead spot for them, as they play the Chargers next week, in a game that could very nearly cement the AFC West if they can win it.  I think this will be another one of those games Carolina finds a way to barely lose.

Denver Broncos 27 Carolina Panthers 24

Tennessee (+7) @Miami (5Dimes)

I think the Titans are truly one of the worst teams in the NFL, but there’s no way in the world Miami should be giving a touchdown to anyone.  Dolphins win, they’re in a must-win spot, but they won’t run away with it.

Miami Dolphins 20 Tennessee Titans 16

Oakland (+7) @Baltimore (Sheridan’s)

Ugh.  I wouldn’t touch this game.  The Raiders flat out stink, but the Ravens have major problems on defense and have their huge showdown with the Steelers next week.  I think Baltimore scores enough on Oakland’s lousy defense to cover the 7, but I’m very iffy.

Baltimore Ravens 28 Oakland Raiders 20

Detroit (-1) @Minnesota (Legends)

I have no faith in the Detroit Lions.  None.  They are about to enter a completely brutal stretch run and they are going to be lucky to finish 8-8.  That said, the Vikings are in complete free fall, and I think Detroit can wait a week before they start losing games.

Detroit Lions 23 Minnesota Vikings 21

Dallas (pick ‘em) @Philadelphia (5Dimes)

DO NOT bet this game.  Repeat, DO NOT bet this game.  Both of these teams are horribly mistake prone.  They’re both struggling to keep from falling off a cliff.  It’s a huge rivalry game where anything can happen.  The Eagles have a tendency to come out and win games like this, just when you think they won’t.  I don’t see how they do it this time though, they just lost their fourth starter off an offensive line that couldn’t block an inchworm with a bulldozer.  What are they gonna do against Dallas’ excellent front 7?

Dallas Cowboys 28 Philadelphia Eagles 10

St. Louis (+10.5) @San Francisco (Sheridan’s)

Both teams are coming off byes here, and the Niners have big look-ahead spot here with the Bears on the horizon.  While I like St. Louis’ toughness, San Francisco has shown an ability to come in and take care of business against NFC West opponents.  I don’t like the spread, but if I have to take a side it’s San Francisco.

San Francisco 49ers 21 St. Louis Rams 10

Houston (+1.5) @Chicago (MGM Mirage)

This is the marquis game of the week, and it’s a great one.  I’m taking the Texans here for two reasons.  First, Chicago’s offense has shown it can be frustrated, and Houston boasts a top five defense against both the run and the pass.  Second, the Bears’ defense, while outstanding, has 28 takeaways this season.  That’s how they beat you.  Houston has only turned the ball over 8 times all year, and their offense is built not to make mistakes.  I think Houston firmly establishes that they are the best team in the NFL with a win here.

Houston Texans 23 Chicago Bears 17

Kansas City (+13) @Pittsburgh (5Dimes)

Pittsburgh has Baltimore next week, and they’re coming off a win over the Giants, so this is a big sandwich game for them.  The Chiefs are God-awful, and for that reason it makes me sick taking them no matter what, but I don’t want to give 13 points with a team that has no reason to think they will need their A game to win.  I’ll take the points, although taking the Chiefs means you should probably look elsewhere.

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Kansas City Chiefs 10

BEST PICKS OF THE WEEK

“The Bengals will cover this week, or my name isn’t Richard Parker.”
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San Diego at Tampa Bay o/u 47.5 (Las Vegas Hilton)

The Bucs gave up 400 passing yards to Carson Palmer and the Raiders, and the Chargers, before their low scoring affair against Cleveland, have given up back to back 30 point efforts.  I don’t think either of these defenses will be the star of this game, and I like the number to go over the 47.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 San Diego Chargers 24

Atlanta (-3) @New Orleans (Orleans)

Did you know the Falcons have played the easiest schedule in the NFL?  I suspected as much, but didn’t know it would come out dead last.  Did you know, also, that the Saints have won 9 of their last 11 meetings with Atlanta?  Here’s where the perfect record takes its first blemish.

New Orleans Saints 31 Atlanta Falcons 28

NY Jets (+6) @Seattle (Sheridan’s)

The Seahawks still have a very real chance to make the playoffs, but to do it, they can not afford to lose a home game against a weak AFC opponent.  I don’t know how the Jets score in this game, I really don’t.  Seattle has been very good at home, and the Jets offense hasn’t been good anywhere.

Seattle Seahawks 21 New York Jets 6

NY Jets @Seattle o/u 38.5 (Sheridan’s)

The same logic applies to the over/under here.  Seattle’s defense is very tough, and the Jets won’t score very many points.  Seattle also lacks explosiveness, so don’t expect them to run it up.  It all adds up to the total coming in well under 38.5

Seattle Seahawks 21 New York Jets 6

St. Louis @San Francisco o/u 39.0 (Sheridan’s)

The spread may not be to my liking in this contest, but under the 39.0 total is.  The 49ers defense is a true shut down unit, and the Rams have been surprisingly plucky on that side of the ball.  Look for a grind it out Niners win, not a shoot out.

San Francisco 49ers 21 St. Louis Rams 10

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